What makes conservatives think they can easily win 2012 election when all polls show them behind?

Obama still leads all presidential polls against every possible repub candidate and blows away Palin like dust. Only Foxnews poll goes against Obama and that too is an incomplete poll because it lists no GOP candidate against Obama. Fact remains conservatives are still on the same path they were in election 2008, as they only embraced extreme right conservatism instead of shifting to center. Since they decided to become even more extreme rightwing, they cannot win 2012 election. Is that right? They still refuse to change like they refused to change after 2007 election. The only reason they won congress is because the white house party always loses midterm election. This is nothing new